Updated: 2026-05-26T17:31:06.497240+00:00
| Narrative | Actors | Proposition (SVO) | Claim/Thesis | Contradiction | Manipulation risk | Transmission | Repricing | Invalidation | Mentions(24h) | Intensity | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai | Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Microsoft, NVIDIA | US hyperscalers increase AI capex and pull forward semiconductor demand | AI infrastructure spending is extending equity momentum while concentrating liquidity risk | Consensus says AI upside is fully priced, while compute bottlenecks imply further repricing | Headline selection bias toward product launches can hide margin and power-constraint risks | Capex headlines -> growth expectations -> equity leadership -> duration sensitivity and USD spillovers | NQ +1.5% to +4.0%; SOXX leads if breadth holds | Mega-cap guidance cuts or AI capex deferrals across two reporting cycles | 127 | 100 | high |
| eu | European Commission, ECB, Germany, France | EU institutions tighten industrial and fiscal responses to external shocks | Policy fragmentation risk inside Europe is underpriced in cross-asset correlation | Headline calm implies cohesion, but fiscal-energy divergence suggests rising dispersion | National headlines can downplay cross-border policy conflict and timeline slippage | Policy signal -> sovereign spread expectations -> EUR risk premium -> equity factor rotation | SX5E dispersion +2% to +5%; EURUSD two-way with downside skew on policy conflict | Coordinated fiscal package and stable energy forwards over multiple sessions | 23 | 96.6 | high |
| china | Xi Jinping, PBoC, State Council, MOFCOM | Chinese policymakers recalibrate stimulus while trade constraints reshape export channels | China macro impulse uncertainty is mispriced in cyclicals and commodity beta | Stimulus headlines suggest reflation, while private-demand weakness limits follow-through | Policy headlines may overstate immediacy while underreporting implementation lag | Policy tone -> EM growth expectations -> commodity demand assumptions -> FX beta | Copper/EM equities ±3% range; AUDCNH sensitivity rises in policy windows | Sustained PMIs and credit impulse confirmation across two data cycles | 12 | 50.4 | medium |
| election | White House, US Congress, European Parliament, party leaderships | Election narratives alter fiscal and regulatory expectations across regions | Political transition risk is feeding risk premia faster than consensus models imply | Poll stability implies low risk, while policy path asymmetry keeps tail risk elevated | Campaign framing can amplify certainty and suppress policy implementation constraints | Political probability shifts -> fiscal path repricing -> rates vol -> sector leadership changes | Rates vol +10% to +25%; policy-sensitive sectors swing 2% to 6% | Cross-party convergence on fiscal and trade policy trajectories | 9 | 37.8 | medium |
| gas | Gazprom, QatarEnergy, European utilities, energy ministers | Gas supply narratives influence European cost structures and inflation expectations | Gas transport and storage risk remains underweighted in equity and FX pricing | Inventory comfort implies stability, while routing fragility preserves upside price risk | Spot-price focus can obscure forward-curve stress and storage quality differences | Gas headlines -> inflation expectations -> real rates path -> equity margin assumptions | EU utilities/chemicals dispersion +3% to +8%; EUR volatility firm on supply shocks | Storage trajectory beats seasonal path with stable LNG arrivals | 9 | 37.8 | medium |
| oil | OPEC+, Saudi Aramco, IEA, US shale producers | Producers manage supply while conflict headlines alter shipping and insurance costs | Energy risk premium remains underpriced when geopolitical supply corridors are unstable | Spot calm suggests normalization, but tanker risk and inventory drawdowns suggest fragility | Short-term price relief can be over-amplified while logistics stress is under-reported | Energy headlines -> inflation expectations -> rates volatility -> equity and FX rotation | Brent +2% to +6% in shock windows; airlines/transport underperform; gold supported | Verified de-escalation with sustained inventory rebuild and freight normalization | 6 | 25.2 | medium |
| inflation | Federal Reserve, ECB, BLS, Eurostat | Inflation prints reset central-bank reaction functions and real-yield expectations | Disinflation confidence is fragile and vulnerable to energy and wage second-round effects | Core moderation implies easing path, while services stickiness delays policy pivot | Single-print framing can hide composition effects and revision risk | Inflation surprise -> terminal-rate repricing -> duration and growth-beta reset | UST 2Y/10Y move 8-18bp window; growth-value rotation 2% to 5% | Sequential core cooling plus easing wage indicators across releases | 6 | 25.2 | medium |
| rates | Federal Reserve, ECB, UST market, Bund market | Rate expectations re-anchor portfolio duration and equity valuation assumptions | Rates volatility remains a primary transmission channel for cross-asset repricing | Soft-landing consensus implies lower vol, while policy ambiguity keeps vol supply constrained | Forward-guidance headlines may overstate certainty around reaction functions | Rates path -> discount-rate reset -> equity multiple compression/expansion -> FX carry shifts | MOVE regime upshift; duration-sensitive equities ±3% to 7% | Consistent central-bank signaling and realized inflation convergence | 4 | 16.8 | low |
| russia | Kremlin, Russian MoD, EU Council, NATO | Conflict escalation narratives affect sanctions expectations and defense-energy pricing | Geopolitical escalation risk is repeatedly under-discounted in European risk assets | Frontline stalemate implies contained risk, while sanctions and logistics dynamics keep spillovers alive | War coverage can prioritize tactical headlines over supply-chain strategic impact | Conflict headline -> sanctions premium -> energy/defense repricing -> regional risk premium | European defensives and defense names +2% to +6%; cyclical beta under pressure | Verified durable de-escalation and sanctions path relaxation | 3 | 12.6 | low |
| crypto | SEC, Major exchanges, ETF issuers, Institutional allocators | Regulatory and liquidity signals drive crypto beta and risk appetite spillovers | Crypto risk-on reflex can front-run broader liquidity shifts but remains shock-sensitive | ETF inflow narrative implies stability, while leverage concentration increases fragility | Flow headlines can omit concentration and liquidation cascade risk | Crypto flows -> risk sentiment -> high-beta equity participation -> vol spillovers | BTC/ETH ±4% to ±12% windows; high-beta tech correlation episodically rises | Sustained deleveraging with stable spot participation and lower funding stress | 3 | 12.6 | low |
| drone | European Commission, Federal Reserve, Global macro funds, Major corporates | DRONE headlines change policy expectations and reprice cross-asset risk | DRONE narrative intensity is shifting positioning behaviour across markets | DRONE appears priced in, yet second-order effects remain underweighted | Framing distortion and omission risk can exaggerate certainty in fast headlines | Headline flow -> liquidity regime -> positioning -> cross-asset repricing | Risk assets +1% to +3% in risk-on continuation; defensive assets bid on volatility spikes | Narrative share falls below 7-day baseline for two consecutive cycles | 2 | 8.4 | low |
| nato | NATO, US DoD, European defense ministries, Ukrainian command | Alliance posture updates alter procurement, fiscal defense burdens, and risk perception | Defense-cycle extension has longer earnings visibility than consensus assumes | Budget fatigue narrative implies slowdown, while procurement pipelines suggest persistence | Announcement headlines may overstate immediate capacity without delivery timelines | Posture shifts -> procurement cycle -> industrial order books -> fiscal mix expectations | Defense complex outperformance +3% to +9%; sovereign spread sensitivity rises | Procurement delays and coalition budget retrenchment | 2 | 8.4 | low |
| ceasefire | European Commission, Federal Reserve, Global macro funds, Major corporates | CEASEFIRE headlines change policy expectations and reprice cross-asset risk | CEASEFIRE narrative intensity is shifting positioning behaviour across markets | CEASEFIRE appears priced in, yet second-order effects remain underweighted | Framing distortion and omission risk can exaggerate certainty in fast headlines | Headline flow -> liquidity regime -> positioning -> cross-asset repricing | Risk assets +1% to +3% in risk-on continuation; defensive assets bid on volatility spikes | Narrative share falls below 7-day baseline for two consecutive cycles | 2 | 8.4 | low |
Mentions: 127 | Intensity: 100 | Momentum: high
Signal strength 100/100 with high momentum. Regime bias appears risk-on. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as position-relevant and timing-sensitive; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 23 | Intensity: 96.6 | Momentum: high
Signal strength 96.6/100 with high momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as position-relevant and timing-sensitive; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 12 | Intensity: 50.4 | Momentum: medium
Signal strength 50.4/100 with medium momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 9 | Intensity: 37.8 | Momentum: medium
Signal strength 37.8/100 with medium momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 9 | Intensity: 37.8 | Momentum: medium
Signal strength 37.8/100 with medium momentum. Regime bias appears risk-off. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 6 | Intensity: 25.2 | Momentum: medium
Signal strength 25.2/100 with medium momentum. Regime bias appears risk-off. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 6 | Intensity: 25.2 | Momentum: medium
Signal strength 25.2/100 with medium momentum. Regime bias appears risk-off. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 4 | Intensity: 16.8 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 16.8/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears risk-off. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 3 | Intensity: 12.6 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 12.6/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 3 | Intensity: 12.6 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 12.6/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears risk-on. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 2 | Intensity: 8.4 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 8.4/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 2 | Intensity: 8.4 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 8.4/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
Mentions: 2 | Intensity: 8.4 | Momentum: low
Signal strength 8.4/100 with low momentum. Regime bias appears mixed. Interpretation: short-term desks should treat this narrative as context-relevant with selective execution; cross-check with rates, energy, and policy headlines for confirmation before sizing.
| Source | Platform | Score | Access | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| r/worldnews | 70.0 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: A place for major news from around the world, excluding US-internal news. | |
| r/technology | 30.01 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Subreddit dedicated to the news and discussions about the creation and use of technology and its surrounding issues. | |
| r/europe | 17.14 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Europe: 50 (+6) countries, 230 languages, 746M people… 1 subreddit. | |
| r/CryptoCurrency | 14.92 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: The leading community for cryptocurrency news, discussion, and analysis. | |
| r/stocks | 13.66 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: The most serious place on Reddit for Stock related discussions! Don't hesitate to tell us about a ticker we should know about, market news, or financial education. Check out our | |
| r/economics | 8.45 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Reddit's largest economics community. Serving as a central forum for users to read, discuss, and learn more about topics related to the economic discipline. We have written rules t | |
| r/investing | 4.98 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: | |
| r/finance | 3.12 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Welcome to r/Finance! No Personal Finance, Homework, Personal blogs, or Career-related posts. All questions go in Monday Morning catch-all threads. | |
| r/artificial | 1.89 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Reddit’s home for Artificial Intelligence (AI) | |
| r/ukraine | 1.4 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: HERE УКРАЇНА TAKES CENTER STAGE — The purpose of r/Ukraine is to amplify Ukrainian voices. We are at war, so content is tightly moderated to keep our community safe. Share and disc | |
| r/geopolitics | 1.14 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: Geopolitics is focused on the relationship between politics and territory. Through geopolitics we attempt to analyze and predict the actions and decisions of nations, or other form | |
| r/energy | 0.42 | public_json | High-signal subreddit: | |
| Reuters World | rss | 98.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| Financial Times World | rss | 95.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| Bloomberg Markets | rss | 93.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| The Economist International | rss | 90.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| WSJ World | rss | 89.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| The Guardian World | rss | 88.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| Hacker News Frontpage | rss | 86.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |
| Politico | rss | 84.0 | public_rss | Major publication feed; engagement inferred downstream from item velocity & cross-source pickup. |